Business Jet Deliveries Expected to Soar 17% in 2024, Led by New Programs

Business Jet Deliveries Expected to Soar 17% in 2024, Led by New Programs

Investment research firm Jefferies projects a robust 17% increase in business jet deliveries from the top-five OEMs, climbing from an estimated 575 in 2023 to 670 in 2024. This anticipated surge surpasses the 652 deliveries recorded in 2019, according to the firm's analysis.

The growth is primarily attributed to the introduction of new programs, such as Gulfstream's eagerly awaited G700, poised to enter service soon, and Dassault Aviation's Falcon 6X. Additionally, an easing of supply-chain challenges contributes to the positive outlook, according to Jefferies.

Jefferies highlighted General Dynamics (GD) as the major beneficiary in terms of deliveries and mix, while Textron is expected to experience more moderate growth. The delay in G700 certification, originally targeted for year-end 2023, has shifted at least 15 G700 deliveries into 2024.

In the Jefferies forecast, Gulfstream deliveries are expected to rise from an estimated 114 in 2023 to 155 in 2024. Analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu estimated that Gulfstream has already built 49 G700s, with 30 anticipated to be delivered this year. The outlook also anticipates G800 certification later in the year, with 10 deliveries expected by year-end.

Jefferies predicts a 39% growth in EBIT for GD's Aerospace group in 2024. However, the firm cautioned that certification delays could pose risks to G700/G800 deliveries and potentially impact revenues, putting at least $2.3 billion at stake this year.

Regarding Dassault, Jefferies envisions a gradual increase from 32 business jets in 2022 to 35 in 2023 and a further rise to 52 in 2024. Overall, the business jet market is expected to maintain a book-to-bill ratio of 1:1, with both pricing and sales softening in 2024.

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